By David R. Kotok, July 14, 2024
(The following was first published on Cumberland Advisors’ website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://www.cumber.com/.)
The news about any shooting attack on any candidate for any American public office, whether a presidential candidate or a local politician, is disturbing and distressing. There isn’t much more to say since readers are already familiar with the known details.
The prepared discussion for today is below.
“La Marseillaise” is the national anthem of France. The song was written in 1792 by Claude Joseph Rouget de Lisle in Strasbourg after the declaration of war by France against Austria. It was originally titled “Chant de guerre pour l’Armée du Rhin.” Source: Wikipedia
Classicfm.com reports:
During the reigns of Napoleon Bonaparte, Louis XVIII and Charles X from 1804 to 1830, La Marseillaise was banned outright because of its Revolutionary associations – and it wasn’t officially reinstated as the national anthem of France until 1879.
But among composers, its popularity has been undeniable. Giuseppe Verdi quotes from the Marseillaise in his patriotic anthem Hymn of the Nations, which also incorporates the national anthems of England and Italy to show a unity between the nations. Edward Elgar also uses it alongside ‘Rule Britannia’ in The Music Makers. Even The Beatles used it in the opening fanfare to ‘All You Need is Love’. But the most famous classical use of the Marseillaise is in Tchaikovsky’s 1812 Overture, which commemorates the defeat of the French at the battle of Borodino.
(“What are the lyrics to the French National Anthem, La Marseillaise – and what do they mean?” https://www.classicfm.com/discover-music/periods-genres/national-anthems/marseillaise-french-lyrics-meaning )
The shocks of the first round of the French elections gave way to the second round. A two-fer, both for the euro-denominated bond markets and for the eurozone. We will offer 3 charts.
First, here are 5 major benchmarks for 10-year government bonds. You can see the reaction functions to the Macron announcement that called for the snap elections and to the subsequent two election-round results. In the strategic view, the French election was of little significance when put in a ten-year context.
And now here’s the OATs spread, showing the widening of the spread between French and German benchmark 10-year debt, and its subsequent narrowing.
And for context, here’s the OATs spread in a longer-term period back to the Great Financial Crisis.
We wish France, our French audience, and those of French descent a Happy Fête de la Fédération, largely know as Bastille Day to the English speaking world. And if you happen to be in Manhattan, enjoy the day and a baguette as a stretch of Madison Avenue and Central Park transforms into mini-France for celebration.