David R. Kotok, July 31, 2024
(The following was first published on Cumberland Advisors’ website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://www.cumber.com/.)
Immigration is again a hot topic, with the presidential contenders facing off in what is appearing to be another very close race, according to the first post-Harris-entry polls. Emotions around the subject are elevated. And the TV ads and social media posts are filled with attempts to change views or hold them.
But few ads and social media posts examine the facts. Few really discuss the implications of higher or lower immigration and what it means for the labor force and wages and the economy. Fact: most data sources which purport objectivity show that without the immigrants, the US economy would suffer. I’ve written about that and demonstrated it with multiple anecdotes.
Below is a guest commentary by Philippa Dunne and Doug Henwood of TLR Analytics. It recites facts. It tells the immigration story without emotion-laden ads or deceptive social media. I thank TLR for allowing us to present their missive as a guest commentary.
__________
Immigration patterns, with and without papers
The divergence between the Establishment and Household surveys has driven a heightened interest in immigration, especially those without documents who may be less likely to participate in the Household survey. The Bureau of Labor Statistics does not inquire about immigration status simply because they want as many people as possible to respond to their surveys. Despite that it would be understandable if some immigrants are reluctant.
The Pew Research Center published a trifecta, How the origins of America’s immigrants have changed since 1850, What the data says about immigration in the U.S., and What we know about unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S.
There are many interactive maps in the first piece that tell the longer story. Leaving aside all comments about the most accurate definition of an immigrant in the U.S., in 1850 the immigrant share of the population was about ten percent, which rose to 15% by 1890. Those 14 million immigrants came primarily from Western and Northern Europe, dominated by Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom. However, in 1860, California’s largest share had migrated from China, and in Oregon, Idaho and Montana as well by 1870, although the Irish by then held the largest share in California.
The next wave, ending in 1919, came primarily from Eastern and Southern Europe. Immigration took a serious tumble between the two world wars, and a new wave began in 1965, largely from Latin America, 49%, and Asia, 27%.
Immigration from Mexico fell sharply with the Great Recession, while immigration from Asia increased, lowering Mexico’s share of the foreign-born population from 29% to 23%.
Still, in 2022, immigrants from Mexico constituted largest shares in 29 states, all the way up to the Canadian border, excepting Montana, in the western states, and to Kentucky and South Carolina on the east coast. Largest shares in six states were born in India.
Between 1920 and 2022, only six states retained the same largest shares: in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas largest shares were born in Mexico; in Maine, Montana and Vermont, in Canada. The authors note that in 2022 for the first time Ethiopians made up one of the largest immigrant groups, in non-state DC, as did Guatemalans, in South Dakota, and Hondurans, in Louisiana. Largest shares were born in the Dominican Republic in New York, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island.
In the third piece covering unauthorized immigrants, Jeffrey Passel and Jens Manuel Krogstad note that currently 77% of immigrants are here legally, including naturalized citizens, 49%, lawful permanent residents, 24% and legal temporary residents, 4%.
In 1990, there are estimated to have been 3.5 million unauthorized immigrants in the U.S., rising to 12.2 million by 2007. The number fell to 10.2 million in 2019, and reached 11.0 million in 2022.
In addition to highlighting the first increase in the number of unauthorized immigrants documented in the official data that runs through 2022, Passel and Krogstad suggest that several alternate sources suggest the number is continuing to grow.
First, at 250,000, migrant encounters at the US-Mexican border hit a record high in December 2023, rising above May 244,000 encounters in May of 2022. Such encounters include apprehensions, in which migrants are taken into custody, and expulsions, where they are immediately sent home. In March 2000, there were 220,000 such encounters; in April 2020, just 16,000.
The authors also note that the number of undocumented immigrants coming from Mexico has fallen from 6.9 million in 2005 to 4.0 million in 2022, while the number entering from elsewhere has risen from 5.3 million to 6.9 million. Mexico’s current share, 37% of all immigrants without papers, is “by far the smallest on record.”
Second, the number of applicants awaiting decisions on asylum claims increased by one million by the end of 2023.
Additionally, the 500,000 immigrants who came under two federal programs, one covering Cubans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Venezuelans, the other Uniting for Ukraine, are not included in 2022 estimates although they would be considered to be part of unauthorized population.
Between 2019 and 2022, unauthorized immigrant populations rose in Florida, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Texas, and fell only in California.
Of course, it’s a stretcher to suggest these numbers would close the gap between the Establishment and Household Surveys, but they could well be a contributing factor, just as the return to pre-Covid overall immigration patterns has contributed to our labor supply. We thank Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood & TLR for permission to share this commentary with our readers.