David R. Kotok, November 8, 2024

(The following was first published on The Kotok Report website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://kotokreport.com/.)

“America has given us an unprecedented and powerful mandate,” the 78-year-old president-elect said to a roaring crowd of supporters. Today we start with an issue: geopolitical tensions. Will Trump 47 be Chamberlainesque, Churchillian, or something else that is not currently predictable?

Scoring North Korean troops to fight alongside Russians in Ukraine is Vladimir Putin’s most recent expansionist chess move. But the chronology is long. We are paying attention.

Last Sunday (October 27, 2024), I cited the evolution of history in the WW2 era, in the 1930s and the 1940s, and got a lot of responses (“A History Lesson?” https://kotokreport.com/a-history-lesson/). We thank readers for those responses. One astute reader had a sensible question. He asked, how could Stalin’s divisions that he sent into Germany have been combat-trained against the Japanese when the dates don’t work? The reader is correct — the dates don’t appear to align. His response pointed out the need for a contextual embellishment. Hitler had tried to encourage the Japanese to attack Stalin and Russia. Because of that potential threat, the Russians prepared to defend against a Japanese attack. That’s why, even though Japan decided against attacking Russia, the crack Manchurian divisions, which were Asian divisions of the Russian army, were available to be sent against Germany at the end of the war.

It’s one thing, when we know the outcomes, to look backward at history and examine the 30s and the WW2 era after the fact, as we did in our previous piece; but we have no idea what the rear-view mirror will show when someone 5, 10, or 20 years from now looks back at the history unfolding in Europe today. If we were to begin to frame the view in the interim — without knowing where the timeline will lead — what would we do today? We would look back and trace the actions that have led to this moment.

Here is a timeline of Putin’s expansionist, Hitlerian behavior:

2008 – Russia invades Georgia: “The 2008 Russo-Georgian War: Putin’s green light,” https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/the-2008-russo-georgian-war-putins-green-light/

On August 8, 2008, Russian forces began the invasion of Georgia, marking the start of Europe’s first twenty-first century war. The conflict itself was over within a matter of days, but the repercussions of the Russo-Georgian War continue to reverberate thirteen years on, shaping the wider geopolitical environment….

The 2008 Russo-Georgian War is now widely recognized as a landmark event in the transition from the era of post-Soviet cooperation between Russia and the West towards today’s Cold War climate.

February 2014 – Russia invades Crimea: “Why was Crimea taken so easily? Nine years in Ukraine,” https://www.iwm.org.uk/history/why-was-crimea-taken-so-easily

In late February 2014, armed soldiers in uniforms without insignia began to occupy Crimea. Despite their Russian weapons and equipment, Russia denied involvement. Just two months after their appearance, President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, declared Crimea was now part of Russia. It marked the start of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

April 2014  – Russia invades the Donbas: “In Ukraine’s Donbas, ten years of war and Russification,” https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20240408-ukraine-donbas-ten-years-of-war-russification-russia-donetsk-luhansk

On April 7, 2014, a coup by pro-Russian militants in the city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine was the spark that ignited the Donbas war. In the heart of this industrial region, populated at the time by six million mostly Russian-speaking inhabitants, the armed confrontation began between an expansionist Russia and a Ukraine aspiring to consolidate its independence. The Donbas has become a desolate landscape after ten years of war, and Russification has been brutally imposed.

February 2022 – Russia invades Ukraine: “Conflict in Ukraine: A timeline (current conflict, 2022 – present),” https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9847/

The current conflict in Ukraine began on 24 February 2022 when Russian military forces entered the country from Belarus, Russia and Crimea.

Prior to the invasion, there had already been eight years of conflict in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian Government forces and Russia-backed separatists.

This paper provides a timeline of the major events that happened in the conflict in Ukraine since the 2022 Russian invasion.

May 2024 – Russia strengthens alliance with China: “Putin and Xi pledge a new era and condemn the United States,” https://www.reuters.com/world/putin-visit-chinas-xi-deepen-strategic-partnership-2024-05-15/

China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin on Thursday pledged a “new era” of partnership between the two most powerful rivals of the United States, which they cast as an aggressive Cold War hegemon sowing chaos across the world.

June 2024 – Putin travels to North Korea: “Kim Jong Un and Putin sign mutual defense pact as Russian leader visits North Korea,” https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-meets-kim-north-korea-rcna157665

Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un signed a new pact Wednesday that includes a pledge of mutual defense if either is attacked.

September 2024 – Kim Jong Un travels to Russia: “Putin and North Korea’s Kim discuss military matters, Ukraine war and satellites,” https://www.reuters.com/world/nkoreas-kim-meets-putin-missiles-launched-pyongyang-2023-09-13/

Kim raised a toast with a glass of Russian wine to Putin’s health, to the victory of “great Russia” and to Korean-Russian friendship, predicting victory for Moscow in its “sacred fight” with the West in the Ukraine war….

“The Russian army and people will certainly win a great victory in the sacred struggle for the punishment of a great evil that claims hegemony and feeds an expansionist illusion,” Kim said, raising his glass.

October 2024 – Now we have a new chapter: Some 10,000 North Korean troops have been dispatched to fight alongside (or in front of?) their Russian hosts against Ukraine (“North Korean troops sent to Russia may be pleased to be there, even as they face ferocious fighting,” https://apnews.com/article/north-korea-soldiers-russia-ukraine-war-651ac7615c3124fde657043a9193d6b1)

Next, South Korea examines the situation and begins to exchange information with Ukraine in its own defense because it needs to know what it can know about what the North Koreans are doing:

The South Korean government reportedly intends to send an unspecified number of South Korean personnel to Ukraine to monitor North Korean troops. South Korean newspaper Hankyoreh reported on October 31 that a senior South Korean presidential office official stated on October 30 that South Korea has a “legitimate need” to analyze North Korean military activities in the war in Ukraine and “feels the need” to establish a team to monitor North Korean troops and the battlefield situation. (https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/north-korea-joins-russias-war-against-ukraine-operational-and-strategic-implications)

We are accumulating this unfolding chronology today, and we don’t know where this chronicle ends up. We’re in the middle of it.

None of this got serious attention in the political campaign, and the defense budget additional appropriations have not happened because they are continuously caught up in the political quagmire.

Every time we wait to act, we are weaker; and we invite adversaries to take advantage of our weakness.

The beat goes on. Putin’s aggression takes many forms, including deploying disinformation to undermine adversaries by promoting deep political divisions. Consider Moldova:

Russian and pro-Kremlin actors launched an information operation on November 4 to discredit incumbent Moldovan President Maia Sandu’s victory in the Moldovan presidential elections.… The Russian information space, including Russian milbloggers, echoed the words of the pro-Russian Moldovan opposition claiming that Moldovan elections were controlled by ‘European bureaucrats’ and that Moldovans had no agency in determining the outcome of the elections.

(“Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4, 2024,” https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-4-2024)

Does this look familiar?

There will be more geopolitical reverberations from the massive Trumpian shock unleashed in the US this week, and they will be obvious soon enough.

Next week we’ll look at the impact of the newly reconfigured House of Representatives.

The reading list below offers background and documentation on the North Korean front.

“No new limits on Ukraine’s use of US arms if North Korea joins Russia’s fight, Pentagon says,” https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/nato-chief-says-he-can-confirm-north-korean-troops-are-russias-kursk-2024-10-28

“High-Ranking North Korean Defectors: A Sign of Cracks in Kim Jong Un’s Regime?” https://thediplomat.com/2024/08/high-ranking-north-korean-defectors-a-sign-of-cracks-in-kim-jong-uns-regime

“U.S. Has Few Options in Response to North Korean Troops Fighting for Russia,” https://www.wsj.com/world/u-s-has-few-options-in-response-to-north-korean-troops-fighting-for-russia-d6b1a5bf

“North Korea Joining Putin’s War in Ukraine Gives Xi a Headache,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-10-29/north-korea-joining-putin-s-war-in-ukraine-gives-xi-a-headache

“Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 4, 2024,” https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-november-4-2024

“Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31, 2024,” https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-31-2024

“North Korea Joins Russia’s War Against Ukraine: Operational and Strategic Implications in Ukraine and Northeast Asia,” https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/north-korea-joins-russias-war-against-ukraine-operational-and-strategic-implications

“US defense spending has two problems, says the Hoover Institution’s Amy Zegart: Not spending enough, and not spending wisely,” Wall Street Week on Bloomberg TV, ‘Summary of the Fiscal Year 2024 National Defense Authorization Act,” https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/fy24_ndaa_conference_executive_summary1.pdf

“North Korean Troops in Russia Bring a “World-Island” Conflict a Step Closer,” https://north-korean-troops-in-russia.tiiny.co

To help readers understand the intent and nature of the North Korea/Russia axis we are adding this item to the reading list.

“Russia Suspected of Plotting to Send Incendiary Devices on U.S.-Bound Planes,” https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-plot-us-planes-incendiary-devices-de3b8c0a?mod=hp_lead_pos1