David R. Kotok, August 22, 2024

(The following was first published on The Kotok Report website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://kotokreport.com/.)

The recent BLS revision has caused a stir. Please take 2 minutes to read it.

Here’s the source document: “2024 Preliminary Benchmark Revision” https://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2024/2024-preliminary-benchmark-revision.htm

Every economist with skills knows that the BLS is fully transparent as to methods and results. Every skillful economist knows that dealing with numbers about a US labor force measured at over 150 million people it is a professional attempt at an estimation to obtain clarity. And every economist worth his/her salt knows that there is neither a conspiracy to hide data nor a political conspiracy to influence elections.

Political candidates who say otherwise are disingenuous and prevaricating.

Below is Politico’s take the on the BLS release. There are many others coming from reputable and diverse media sources.

I will be publishing later, after the September labor release, an update on the use of the employment report and how it helps market agents and how it doesn’t.

For now, this economist wants to personally applaud the candor and professionalism of the BLS.

We discourage politicians from disparaging my profession and my colleagues.

Here’s Politico’s Morning Money comment: “Trump’s scandalous take on the labor market,” https://www.politico.com/newsletters/morning-money/2024/08/22/trumps-scandalous-take-on-the-labor-market-00175683

And here’s the Barron’s take on it: “Fed Rate Cuts Depend on Unreliable Data, Why Jobs Reports Are a Warning. And 5 Other Things to Know Today.” https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-rate-cuts-stock-markets-what-to-know-today-6ee8118f

Excerpt: “There is important context. The change only affects data that are five months old at this point. It could even make recent payrolls figures look better, by indicating they are not as far below previous gains as feared.” And here’s the in-depth perspective of TLRanalytics – again, highly supportive of the job the BLS does: “The 2024 Benchmark in a 32-year Frame,” https://www.tlranalytics.com/employment-productivity/the-2024-benchmark-in-a-32-year-frame/