David R. Kotok, September 29, 2024

(The following was first published on The Kotok Report website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://kotokreport.com/.)

I personally favor Senator John Thune to succeed Mitch McConnell as leader of the Senate Republican Conference in the forthcoming Congress. Here’s why. Please note that this is my own view and not the position of any business or organization with which I have any affiliation.

IMO, the contest for Republican leader in the next US Senate is possibly the second most important contest in this election cycle. Why? Because the majority leader of the Senate is the second most powerful position in the nation. And the current polling and offshore betting indicate that the Republicans may retake the Senate majority by a narrow margin. Of course, a lot could change between now and election day, so this comment is not a forecast but only an observation. 

Here’s a link to the recent discussion of this contest from Politico. The race to replace McConnell heats up. By RACHAEL BADE, EUGENE DANIELS and RYAN LIZZA  09/26/2024 06:18 AM EDT, https://www.politico.com/playbook .

The nature of the US Senate is such that the leader in each caucus has enormous power, whether that leader is a Democrat or a Republican. That is certainly true of the majority leader. The majority leader effectively controls the flow of legislation to the Senate floor. She/he can be overridden, but that is difficult. Success as a caucus leader is dependent on the ability to negotiate while remaining partisan within the political party conference.

The Democratic caucus outcome is apparently decided. Senator Schumer is likely to be re-elected. We already know a lot about him from his position of majority leader in the current Senate. There does not seem to be any opposition to his leadership within the Democratic caucus.

But the Republican caucus leader is now a contest to be held in November, after the results of the elections of contested Senate seats are confirmed. Many commentators suggest that the Senate could flip to red from blue, as the latest polling suggests. Please note there are independents in the Senate, but they select or negotiate their positions into a caucus. Currently, independent Senators Sanders (Vermont) and King (Maine) caucus with the Democrats. Both are expected to be re-elected in November.

For the Republican caucus there are three known contenders for the position of leader. If there are others, we don’t know about them. They are Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), and Sen. John Thune (R-SD). We will list the three senators’ websites at the end of this commentary.

My preference and yours mean nothing for this contest. We have no vote. The outcome will be decided by a secret ballot within the Republican caucus.

But for what it is worth, I favor Senator John Thune to replace Mitch McConnell, who will remain in the Senate but is stepping down from being the Republican leader in the next term. I believe that outcome would be in the best interest of the mainstream Republican party or what is left of it. More importantly, I believe it would be in the best interest of the nation. I wish him success for reasons I will list below.

Thune is the current minority whip of the Republican caucus. He has worked in Senate leadership tirelessly. And he has not acted in ways to undermine the political system and its functioning.

I like Thune specifically because of his experience with a large healthcare system in his region and in his state. I am personally familiar with that system and people who are working in it or have worked for it. That system is supported by philanthropy, and Thune has the experience of respecting this philanthropy.  He is a known supporter of this type of healthcare application and advocacy for public health.

Kotok personal disclosure: As longtime readers know, I put public health first and foremost and ahead of any political party affiliations. The public health policy is my true political party, not my voter registration.  I vote public health first even though my registration is currently Republican.  What I do in the voting booth is my business alone.

I do not know very much about Senator Cornyn – only his bio and his history in public life. So, I’m neutral on his efforts to become leader.

Now let me get to Rick Scott, who is my Senator in Florida. I am opposed to him for this leadership position in the US Senate. He has failed my public health policy test. Here’s why.

When he was governor of Florida, he tried to convert public hospitals in the state to for-profit hospitals. When he launched that attack on public hospitals, he had legislation proposed in Tallahassee. That legislation would have undermined the hospital system in Sarasota, a hospital system that has saved my life twice. When Scott’s attack on public hospitals was launched, citizens in Sarasota organized a political action committee to work on behalf of Sarasota Memorial Hospital and specifically to oppose Rick Scott’s attack. I was a contributor to that committee. The collective effort of many Sarasotans (Republicans, Democrats, and independents) led to getting changes in the legislation so that Scott’s attack on our public hospital was eventually rebuffed.

For me the Senate leadership race that includes Rick Scott as a candidate is personal. And for me healthcare and my local hospital comes first and ahead of any political affiliations. Scott has a demonstrated history of attacking public hospitals. This history is a distinguishing and prominent difference from the other Senators who seek to be the next Republican leader. And for me, in Sarasota, that means I am fearful of what Scott would do if he were the leader of a caucus in the US Senate. Sarasota just went through a version of that type of attack on the hospital this year with a group that was resoundingly defeated in the recent Republican primary for hospital board seats.

I wish Senator John Thune success in his quest to succeed Mitch McConnell as leader of his caucus. He is a conservative Republican with a communal conscience and concern for the entire country. He is sensitive to the issue of healthcare, and that means a great deal to me.

Again, please note that only the Republican Senators who will be holding office next year will vote in their caucus by secret ballot. They are the ones who will select the successor to McConnell. I hope it is Thune.

The presidential race currently seems too close to call. Harris has made up all the ground that Biden lost before he dropped out. Harris leads in national polls, but it is the Electoral College that counts, and there the race seems to be very close, with all the battleground states showing races that are toss-ups or nearly so. Scant leads seem to fall within the polls’ margins of error. Even the offshore betting odds are very close. And Trump’s debate performance has become a controversy in this extraordinary election cycle where Haitians’ allegedly eating cats gets more media time than Iran’s sending missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine while Kim in North Korea is showing off the manufacture of nuclear centrifuges.

So there we are.

Here are the three Senators’ websites:

Senator John Thune: https://www.thune.senate.gov/public/

Senator John Cornyn: https://www.cornyn.senate.gov/

Senator Rick Scott: https://www.rickscott.senate.gov/

Here’s an AP story about Thune.

“John Thune is striving to be the next Republican Senate leader, but can he rise in Trump’s GOP?” https://apnews.com/article/trump-senate-john-thune-republican-leader-c34ecb7479cee50c24aacf3fef83dcfc .

Two more pieces follow that are relevant to US public health policy and outcomes (with economic implications, of course).

“RFK Jr. says he’s helping Trump pick leaders of FDA, NIH, CDC,” https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4887585-rfk-jr-trump-fda-nih-cdc/

“Mirror, Mirror 2024: A Portrait of the Failing U.S. Health System,” https://www.commonwealthfund.org/publications/fund-reports/2024/sep/mirror-mirror-2024

Finally, we close with four pieces about Rick Scott.

“Senator Rick Scott’s Plan to Raise Taxes on Working Families and Slash Essential Programs Would Cost Jobs and Reduce Economic Growth,” https://www.jec.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/008860e7-93bd-47dd-a786-fbfdfee24868/jec—scott-plan-analysis—april-2022—final.pdf

“Gov. Rick Scott took responsibility? No, he took $300 million | Randy Schultz,” https://www.sun-sentinel.com/2018/10/02/gov-rick-scott-took-responsibility-no-he-took-300-million-randy-schultz/ (paywall)

“Florida senator is raring to help Trump enact Project 2025,” https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/7/30/2259110/-Florida-senator-is-raring-to-help-Trump-enact-Project-2025 “Rick Scott, United States Senator,” https://www.britannica.com/biography/Rick-Scott