David R. Kotok, October 20, 2024

(The following was first published on The Kotok Report website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://kotokreport.com/.)

1. The Climate Adaptation Center will be holding a conference at ground zero in Sarasota, at the University of South Florida Conference Center, November 14–15. It is now expected to be a blockbuster event. To register, visit the CAC’s website: https://www.theclimateadaptationcenter.org/events/.

2. Milton killed people who didn’t have to die. It decimated homes. It destroyed businesses. It will take many months to repair, replace, & rebuild. Total Milton cost estimates are approaching $200 billion and rising as more is learned. Milton spawned a new level (first time in recorded history) of tornado intensity in FL. Insurance industry and reinsurance companies must recalculate risk. Insurance costs are certain to rise. Remember, it has been a trifecta: Debby, Helene, Milton. Impacts in 7 states. Nearly all the Atlanta Fed’s regional district is impacted. (https://www.atlantafed.org/)  I’m following every Atlanta Fed research report closely. Of the 12 regional Fed Reserve Banks, Atlanta is now hurricane ground zero. The November 14-15, CAC program now includes an Atlanta Fed speaker.

3. The federal fiscal response to the hurricanes is large and growing, as it must. Fiscal deficits will rise. If tariff wars break out next year, the deficit could skyrocket to 5–6–7% of GDP or even higher, regardless of who wins the November election. Tariffs are a net loser in money flows in America. Politicians squawk but they don’t pay. Tariffs are simply a sales tax on you and me. We pay.  Federal government receives our money. State and local finances are now seriously pressured in several hurricane states. Bonding is coming and many indentures and clauses may be seriously impaired by Milton. This huge financial shock requires detailed research to analyze.

4. Intentional liars and social media fictions are a dangerous and worsening problem. We will catalog only a few of the very many. Note some are political actors and others are malicious harmdoers. Either form harms us. Both make matters worse.

4(a). On Sept. 25, Representative Luna (R–FL) voted against the stopgap spending bill that recently replenished the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) disaster relief fund. The next day, Hurricane Helene inflicted its worst damage on Luna’s Clearwater–St. Petersburg district. Luna did a blame-game about-face. On Oct. 3, Luna claimed that FEMA is underfunded because it gave money to immigrants (“Illegals got $1.01B from FEMA that was supposed to/ SHOULD GO to flood victims!” https://x.com/realannapaulina/status/1841942537608876403). That assertion has been thoroughly debunked. The following day, Luna joined a political rally on stage with presidential hopeful Donald Trump in North Carolina and repeated her lie. Lies have consequences, including lies about where FEMA money goes and lies about $750 being all the assistance people get. On October 14, federal assistance in Rutherford County, NC, was halted because of violent threats against FEMA. There was an arrest.

4(b). On Oct. 3, Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R–GA) tweeted that the government can control the weather. She implied that the Biden administration could direct hurricanes toward red states (https://x.com/mtgreenee/status/1842039774359462324). At the time, Milton was a developing Cat 4 or 5 and targeting Florida. IMO, that Greene statement is as bizarre as it gets!  IMO, Greene is a menace to us.

4(c). AI images told lies, too. Disney World was not flooded. Former President Trump did not wade through flood waters in blue jeans. Some images were faked to discredit FEMA. A digital forensics expert drew this conclusion: “The danger of this content is that it further muddies the waters as officials are trying to save lives and it casts everything we see into doubt. This poisoning of the information ecosystem is incredibly dangerous for our society and democracy.” (“Hurricane Milton: Fact-checking conspiracies, rumors and AI images,” https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/hurricane-milton-fact-checking-conspiracies-rumors-ai-images-2024-10-11/)

Kotok view: This madness must stop. Sane Republican legislators can see that; I’ve personally spoken with some I know privately. Some have the courage to speak out against this craziness. Others remain silent. I’m worried.  Fear of retribution is a dangerous tool when used in situations that require governments to act quickly to protect citizens. 

Barry Ritholtz penned a hard-hitting column on the dangers we all face from the spreading of disinformation. I agree with him. Misleading and harming people with spurious claims, outright lying, or the misuse of AI needs to be a crime punishable by our legal system. The craziness has gone too far. In finance, lying is deemed fraud, is punishable, and can be criminal. It is not protected by “free speech”. IMO, the US Constitution’s First Amendment protection has an assumption of truth.

Here’s Barry: “Shouting Fire in a Crowded Theater,” https://ritholtz.com/2024/10/shouting-fire/.

I hope to see you for the CAC annual conference in Sarasota on November 14–15. My scheduled opening remarks for the conference are set for 9 am on day 1.

Sources list for further reading:

“Florida GOP Rep. Who Voted Against FEMA Funding Calls for Aid Before Milton,” https://www.newsweek.com/florida-rep-voted-against-fema-funding-aid-hurricane-milton-anna-luna-1965416.

“Hurricane Milton: Fact-checking conspiracies, rumors and AI images,” https://www.reuters.com/fact-check/hurricane-milton-fact-checking-conspiracies-rumors-ai-images-2024-10-11/

“Arrest made after FEMA crews forced to relocate amid reported threats over hurricane relief efforts,”https://www.cbsnews.com/news/fema-crews-relocate-reported-threats-armed-militia-hurricane-helene-relief/

“Biden criticizes Marjorie Taylor Greene for claiming the government controls the weather,” https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/biden-criticizes-marjorie-taylor-greene-claiming-government-controls-weather

“As Milton misinformation swells, some Republicans try to course correct,” https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/09/florida-mtg-weather-posts-00183016

“Meteorologists Get Death Threats as Hurricane Milton Conspiracy Theories Thrive,” https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/hurricane-milton-misinformation-meteorlogist-death-threats-1235130352/ “Disaster loan program fully ‘exhausted’ with Congress still out of town,” https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/15/disaster-loan-program-exhausted-00183784