Try this. Take your portfolio and price the holdings on election day of last year (or a few days later, after the outcome of the Congress was known). Price it again on Inauguration Day (or use the opening day of the new Congress). Price it again today. 

Then, you decide. Is it a pullback of 5–6–7%, which happens several times a year? Is it a correction (10% or more)? Is it serious? Will it become a bear market sell-off (20% or more)? Is there a paradigm shift? What have we learned in the last month and a half? Ask yourself if you really want to watch Tariff Wars? Chaotic unplanned downsizing of government including policy reversal after policy reversal each time a mistake is realized?

Now price this same group of your holdings and add in some references of benchmark indices. 

I suggest that you look at SPY for the large-cap US, MDY for the mid-cap US, IJR for the small-cap US. Add RSP for large-cap US equal-weighted.

To make things more interesting, look at the foreign markets, too. 

Try Europe (EUR). Japan (EWJ). Germany (EWG). Emerging Markets (EEM). Compare with the All-Country index (ACWI). And try All-Country without the US (ACWX). 

I will do one for you. 

Year-to date as of March 9, the MSCI All-Country (ACWI) is positive 1.7%. But without the US, the same benchmark of All-Country ex-US is up 9.1%. (Source: DataTrek)

Ask these questions.

Was this just a normal adjustment from the last couple of years, where the US outperformed the rest of world?

Or is this a reaction to the Trump-Vance-Musk policy approach to government? 

Is the rest of the world changing policy? Are stock prices reflecting these changed expectations?

And lastly, as you look at your portfolio, ask yourself, Do I like what I see, or am I more worried now than I was 5–6 months ago?

David R. Kotok, March 11, 2025

(The above was first published on The Kotok Report website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://kotokreport.com/.)