(The following was first published on Cumberland Advisors’ website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://www.cumber.com/.)

A Cuba Update (June 2024)

“Cuba Series, Part 1: The Bay of Pigs,” Feb. 04, 2024, https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/cuba-series-part-1-bay-pigs
“Cuba Series, Part 2: US Sanctions on Cuba?” Feb. 11, 2024, https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/cuba-series-part-2-us-sanctions-cuba
“Cuba Series, Part 3: Healthcare,” Feb. 18, 2024, https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/cuba-series-part-3-healthcare
“Cuba Series, Part 4: Helms–Burton & Readers Respond,” March 3, 2024, https://www.cumber.com/market-commentary/cuba-series-part-4-helms-burton-readers-respond-0

On one trip, journalist Rick Newman of Yahoo Finance joined the group. He published twice; here are the links:

“7 surprises from a visit to Cuba,” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-surprises-from-a-visit-to-cuba-175126441.html
“Top surprises from a trip to Cuba: Yahoo Finance’s Rick Newman,” https://finance.yahoo.com/video/top-surprises-trip-cuba-yahoo-171246959.html

The recent news flow from Cuba and about Cuba is distressing to see and read. Reports of internal oppression are intermixed with reports of failures to provide food and basic services. Power blackouts and hunger seem to have inspired Cubans to protest. The Cuban government is reported to have blamed American agitators. Many Cubans, those who are able, try to migrate out of their country to make new lives in the US or other countries. I saw the lines waiting outside the Spanish embassy in Havana with my own eyes. And, as one can see from my writings, I discussed the issues in detail with Cubans during my trips.

Some readers and some of my GIC colleagues and I have privately discussed whether anything will change in Cuba. Do governments in power in single-party political systems like Cuba’s show any willingness and resilience to change their ways to benefit their citizens, or are they only protecting the center of power? Is it just the nature of these forms of governance to resist change at the expense of ordinary citizens so that the elite who stay in power only strengthen their positions through the use of social repression and neglect? History says that is the tendency, but history also says that governmental forms can change. It usually requires violence to change totalitarian governments, while different forms of democracies usually enjoy more or less peaceful transfers of power.

In a recent piece on Cuba, I described how Vietnam is flourishing even as it has the same type of single-party communist government as Cuba’s. Why does one act one way and the other quite differently? Why is Maduro’s Venezuela a despised government, and why do its citizens struggle against extreme risk to leave? What made Pinochet in Chile change and open the country to capitalism and outside imports? Why does Putin murder and punish his citizens and invade his neighbors ruthlessly? And how does an outnumbered and courageous population of Ukraine manage to resist Russian brutality and fight hard for its independence?

Lastly, what is America’s policy? How is it developed? How much is realpolitik versus how much is idealism? To incorporate America’s history, we ask: Is the Monroe Doctrine dead?

Another US election cycle is ramping up. The Trump doctrine seems to be isolationist and protectionist. Trump has said he will deport and isolate and restrict immigration and engage in protectionism, imposing tariffs at new, higher levels. Biden claims to be a globalist but faces mixed results from his policies. Some of the Biden outcomes are failures, IMO. Some of Trump’s policies were failures, IMO. If Trump’s proposals as articulated by his spokesperson, Stephen Miller, are implemented, I believe the US would suffer an extreme labor force shock from the mass deportation and punishment of immigrants.  More on this in a future missive.

American history shows that some failures are part of what happens when we play an international role instead of withdrawing from the global stage. Which way is better? Trump’s? Biden’s? Which approach might lead to eventual widening war? Which approach diminishes the chances for war? This is the classic debate.  IMO, isolationism, and protectionism are long term losers for America.  Even the short-term possible gains are minimized in this massively connected electronic world, IMO.  Furthermore, isolationism reduces connections between and among peoples and raises suspicions and the ability for opinions to be manipulated by self-serving opticians who only seek power.

Back to Cuba.

I am in sympathy with the Cuban people. Over the years I have met many. They are friendly and hospitable, and they have been welcoming to me and to my GIC colleagues. They are now suffering. I’ve seen it. The fledgling entrepreneurial business and professional people are trying to evolve within their regime. They cannot change their government, but they can petition that government, and they are doing so when they can do it without reprisals. Will the government of Cuba change?

Until this week (see Associated Press report in the list below) , America’s approach has been to place Cuba in the terrorist state category and increasingly and intensely apply sanctions. That has been our basic theme for over 60 years. So, has it worked? Look at the outcomes, and you must conclude it doesn’t work. But is there a way to change it? And if 99% of the American population doesn’t care, then the 1% drive the policy, and they usually do that for their own economic or political benefit.

My conclusion is, things don’t change until something really breaks and there is sufficient drama to elevate the American public opinion to want a change. That is certainly not the case today with American policy towards Cuba. Sadly, it doesn’t appear to be the case in Cuba, either.

Here’s a list of resources and recent articles about the turmoil in Cuba. It is not pleasant reading.

“Communist Cuba Is on the Brink of Collapse,” https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-03-19/communist-cuba-is-on-the-brink-of-collapse

“In Cuba, the Terminal Stage of Communism Is a Mafia,” https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/in-cuba-the-terminal-stage-of-communism

“Daily Review: Economic Crisis Leaves Cuba at an Impasse,” https://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/daily-review-cuba-economic-crisis/

“Tampa woman charged with smuggling over $100K into US from Cuba,” https://www.ice.gov/news/releases/tampa-woman-charged-smuggling-over-100k-us-cuba

“Cuba’s government says U.S. stoked five protests at weekend,” https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cubas-government-says-u-stoked-165433588.html

“Amid Blackouts and Scarce Food, Cuba Protests Rattle ‘Cradle’ of the Revolution,” https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2024-03-27/amid-blackouts-and-scarce-food-cuba-protests-rattle-cradle-of-the-revolution

“Cuba woos Russians, Chinese to revive ailing tourist sector,” https://www.reuters.com/world/cuba-woos-russians-chinese-revive-ailing-tourist-sector-2024-06-10/ s

“Russia Sends Cuba First Oil in a Year to Ease Blackouts and Unrest,” https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-28/cuba-protests-russia-sends-oil-to-ease-blackouts-hunger-unrest

“Russia nuclear-powered submarine to visit Cuba amid rising tensions with US,” https://amp.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/jun/07/russia-nuclear-powered-submarine-kazan-to-visit-cuba
(Update: The Russian warships have left after a 5-day visit without any reported incidents. Destination unknown.)

“Ambassador, Pentagon official among the Americans who spied for Cuba | 60 Minutes,” https://www.cbsnews.com/video/spies-for-cuba-in-us-60-minutes-video-2024-05-19/

“State Department removes Cuba from short list of countries deemed uncooperative on counterterrorism,” https://apnews.com/article/cuba-us-counterterrorism-list-state-department-diplomacy-a0dc0eb187b9fcc2fcc1dc5df5a8f75a

“The way to Cuba’s heart is through the internet,” https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/way-cubas-heart-through-internet

“Inside prison walls,” https://static.nytimes.com/email-content/NN_sample.html

King of the Gunrunners: How a Philadelphia Fruit Importer Inspired a Revolution and Provoked the Spanish-American War, https://www.amazon.com/King-Gunrunners-Philadelphia-Revolution-Spanish-American/dp/1496849906

The Spanish–American War, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish%E2%80%93American_War
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And finally:

Two very fine Cuban rums that are not permitted in the US.

And a photo from my iPhone of a rooftop 5-member jazz group from Havana with Christine and me. The owner is a private entrepreneur; a beer cost $3.