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Kotok Quick Take: Rick Newman on US Default Risk
“This massive, outrageous, pork-filled Congressional spending bill is a disgusting abomination. Shame on those who voted for it.” – Elon Musk Market-based prices tell us that the risk of a US default is higher than zero. I comment on Rick Newman’s must-read June 3 Yahoo Finance piece on default risk and what it’s costing us.…
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Section 70302: A Poison Pill in the Big Beautiful Bill
Section 70302 of the Big Beautiful Bill targets the federal courts, with huge implications for individuals, businesses and fiduciaries of all types. (Images sourced at Shutterstock) The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (H.R.1) from the 119th Congress (2025–2026) is a 1,116-page legislative document. Here’s the link to the entire bill: https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/1/text. Buried about halfway into the…
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A Kotok Quick Take: ICE Operations in Tallahassee, FL
Faustino Macedo, a 41-year-old father whose wife and five children are U.S. citizens, was among those detained on Thursday, his wife, Amanda Parrish, told the Herald. Macedo was in the process of getting a green card, did not have a criminal background and had worked for the same company for 14 years, Parrish said….(“Dozens arrested…
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Impact of Trump Tariffs on S&P 500 Earnings
After today’s report was finalized, Moody’s downgraded the United States, which has now lost the prestigious AAA rating by the three biggest services. Fitch and Standard & Poor’s had already downgraded America. I’ll have more to say on that coming soon. For this Sunday morning, I have attempted to estimate the impact of Trump’s tariff…
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Maybe It Won’t Be So Bad?
Yesterday, Kathleen Hays released an excellent video interview with macroeconomist Mickey Levy, a Visiting Scholar at the Hoover Institution. We recommend the interview for two reasons. First, Levy is a globally respected and experienced professional. Second, he offers scenarios regarding the impact of tariffs and does so with balance and not shrill alarmist warnings. He…
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Trump — 100 Days in a Single Chart
“I think the good parts are the Trump economy, and the bad parts are the Biden economy because he’s done a terrible job.” Donald Trump’s words, Meet the Press interview, May 4, 2025. Today, a single chart provides a view of Trump’s first 100 days. Readers may evaluate the statement made by the president for themselves. The chart…
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Tariffs: A Black Eye for Services
Unfortunately, the broad damage to the US economy caused by Trump’s tariff war and tariff talk extends to the vast services sector, which was thriving through 2024. The service sector includes just about anything that doesn’t come out of a factory, farm, mine, or oil well. It includes retailers, restaurants, and hotels, as well as…
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Tariffs, Trade, and the Coming Recession
At the Global Interdependence Center’s 2025 Monetary and Trade Conference last week, Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree, and I shared an in-depth discussion on his Behind the Markets podcast. The entire podcast is a valuable listen; our discussion starts at 30:19. I invite readers to listen. Here’s the program description: Host Jeremy Schwartz and…
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Putin — Putler? Readers Respond
Headlines hit with the frequency of missiles. Russia’s war against Ukraine grinds on despite the Trump administration’s efforts at obtaining a peace favorable to Russia’s interests. Russia pounded Kyiv with missiles and drones overnight, killing at least eight people, wounding more than 70 and smashing buildings in the biggest attack on the Ukrainian capital this…
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Tough Times Ahead for County, City Budgets
Tough Times Ahead for County, City Budgets I spoke recently with Johannes Werner of WSLR+Fogartyville 96.5, a listener-supported nonprofit radio station serving Florida’s west coast, where I live. In the interview, we discussed tariff impacts and, as stocks have fallen, how things are different this time in the world of bonds, which are usually regarded…