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Trump — 100 Days in a Single Chart
“I think the good parts are the Trump economy, and the bad parts are the Biden economy because he’s done a terrible job.” Donald Trump’s words, Meet the Press interview, May 4, 2025. Today, a single chart provides a view of Trump’s first 100 days. Readers may evaluate the statement made by the president for themselves. The chart…
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Trump’s Math Gaffes
In our Sunday, April 13, post, entitled “Yippy,” we offered the following paragraph: We will write separately about the technical miscalculations used in the original trade release from the Trump administration. They are an absolute embarrassment for Navarro and company and their so-called experts. When their miscalculations were revealed in detail, the powers that be…
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“Yippy”
“I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy. You know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.” — Donald Trump, April 9, 2025. Songwriter Stan Jones (1914–1963) wrote the song “Ghost Riders in the Sky,” which is based on a cowboy legend he heard as a…
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Tariffs — Damn the Torpedoes
Tariffs: Damn the Torpedoes! My friend and fishing buddy Jack Farley was kind enough to inquire about my views regarding the current tariff chapter being written into American history. To adapt the famous phrase, damn the torpedoes, here are the results. I decided not to hold anything back. In an April 4 interview, we covered…
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Trump Tariff Outcomes?
Does the Trump bear market bring the S&P 500 Index down to 4000? Does it result in a drop of S&P earnings (2025–2026) from the pre-Trump Tariff War estimate of $260–$270 down to the $200–$220 range? Worst case: Yes! With a serious recession and more upheaval. Best case: Rapid trade deals are made, and the…
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Trump’s Tariff War
I will use just one of many incoming messages to summarize the nearly universal view about the Trump tariff announcement. Doc A. wrote: I haven’t made a prediction in 5 years, but I just read 3 emails from “news” agencies that made mumbled speculations about today. It seems clear to me. Here’s what I see…
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Secondary Tariffs – Do They Work?
First, the definition — “A secondary tariff is a monetary sanction imposed on countries that trade with a country with which the US is at odds, such as Venezuela. This type of tariff aims to pressure these countries to reduce their involvement in the trade of goods or services with the US target country. For…
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Tariff War Continues
The Tariff War is getting hotter. Here are some bullets and a reading list. 1. First, some history — in our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks (https://www.thefedandtheflu.com/), my co-authors and I discuss the plague in Athens and the aftermath of the Peloponnesian War. See Chapter 4. Note that one of the…
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Readers’ Turn: Climate & Project 2025
David R. Kotok, September 8, 2024 (The following was first published on The Kotok Report website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://kotokreport.com/.) Readers replied to our two-part series about Project 2025 and its impact on climate mitigation and the environment. Here are the links to parts 1 and 2: “Climate Change, Markets, Economics –…
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Jacob Frenkel, Kathleen Hays, Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting
David R. Kotok, September 4, 2024, Cumberland Advisors Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer (The following was first published on Cumberland Advisors’ website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://www.cumber.com/.) There have been many, many, many reports and podcasts and descriptions and interpretations from the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting. I want to mention just one interview.…