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Secondary Tariffs – Do They Work?
First, the definition — “A secondary tariff is a monetary sanction imposed on countries that trade with a country with which the US is at odds, such as Venezuela. This type of tariff aims to pressure these countries to reduce their involvement in the trade of goods or services with the US target country. For…
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Tariff War Continues
The Tariff War is getting hotter. Here are some bullets and a reading list. 1. First, some history — in our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks (https://www.thefedandtheflu.com/), my co-authors and I discuss the plague in Athens and the aftermath of the Peloponnesian War. See Chapter 4. Note that one of the…
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Readers Turn: Climate & Project 2025
David R. Kotok, September 8, 2024 (The following was first published on The Kotok Report website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://kotokreport.com/.) Readers replied to our two-part series about Project 2025 and its impact on climate mitigation and the environment. Here are the links to parts 1 and 2: “Climate Change, Markets, Economics –…
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Jacob Frenkel, Kathleen Hays, Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting
David R. Kotok, September 4, 2024, Cumberland Advisors Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer (The following was first published on Cumberland Advisors’ website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://www.cumber.com/.) There have been many, many, many reports and podcasts and descriptions and interpretations from the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting. I want to mention just one interview.…
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Climate Change, Markets, Economics – Part 2
David R. Kotok, September 1, 2024 (The following was first published on The Kotok Report website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://kotokreport.com/.) We wish our readers a pleasant Labor Day weekend. Please take a few minutes for a serious commentary and then freely share it with friends, if you are so inclined. They are…
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A Report from Camp Kotok by Bill Kennedy
David R. Kotok, August 25, 2024 (The following was published on The Kotok Report website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://kotokreport.com/.) Bill Kennedy is a regular invitee in Maine and the Chair of the Global Interdependence Center (https://www.interdependence.org/). He published this excellent summary of our gathering in Maine. I thank him for permission to…
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THE BLS REVISION
David R. Kotok, August 22, 2024 (The following was first published on The Kotok Report website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://kotokreport.com/.) The recent BLS revision has caused a stir. Please take 2 minutes to read it. Here’s the source document: “2024 Preliminary Benchmark Revision” https://www.bls.gov/ces/notices/2024/2024-preliminary-benchmark-revision.htm Every economist with skills knows that the BLS…
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CCC? Not for Me!
David R. Kotok, July 28, 2024 (The following was first published on Cumberland Advisors and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://www.cumber.com/.) This quote was a lead item in Michael Gayed’s Lead-Lag report on July 24th: The worst of the worst credit tier, CCC-rated and below, has seen its yield spread rise by 116 basis points…
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Climate Change, Markets, Economics – Part 1
David R. Kotok, August 18, 2024 (The following was first published on Cumberland Advisors’ website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://www.cumber.com/.) A reader chastised me because I asked how Florida business schools are supposed to teach the economic and financial effects from climate change when they are not permitted to mention the words climate change in…
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Profits, GDP, Markets
David R. Kotok, August 11, 2024 (The following was first published on Cumberland Advisors’ website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://www.cumber.com/.) Profits and GDP help explain the stock market rally of the post-Covid period. Corporate earnings come from these profits. The computation of profits in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA) are derived from…