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Trump’s Tariff War
I will use just one of many incoming messages to summarize the nearly universal view about the Trump tariff announcement. Doc A. wrote: I haven’t made a prediction in 5 years, but I just read 3 emails from “news” agencies that made mumbled speculations about today. It seems clear to me. Here’s what I see…
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Secondary Tariffs – Do They Work?
First, the definition — “A secondary tariff is a monetary sanction imposed on countries that trade with a country with which the US is at odds, such as Venezuela. This type of tariff aims to pressure these countries to reduce their involvement in the trade of goods or services with the US target country. For…
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Measles and US Public Health
(Shutterstock) Lessons from history, reported in our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks, are playing out in Texas and 19 other states as measles outbreaks continue to expand, principally sickening unvaccinated children. The CDC maintains a webpage on “Measles Cases and Outbreaks,” updated each Friday. On Friday, March 28, the CDC reported,…
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Lost Pages: Eroding Our Confidence in Public Data
Here’s a guest post from Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood of TLR Analytics on the implications of an executive order purging advisory boards that ensure the reliability of BLS data. I am in 100% agreement with their message. David R. Kotok, March 27, 2025 (The above was first published on The Kotok Report website and via LISTSERV.…
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Real CDC or Snake-Oil CDC?
We are in a new information landscape, one that has immense benefits but also serious consequences. To adapt to the dense jungle of our information ecosystem, we must become responsible information consumers in ways we’ve never had to before. It’s hard but desperately needed for our health and our democracy.(Your Local Epidemiologist) In January 2025,…
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Ukraine and Florida
This morning, we consider the blur of developments surrounding peace negotiations in Ukraine, their impacts on the Ukrainian-American community in Florida and Ukrainian refugees across the US, and possible outcomes. What will Putin agree to, and can he be trusted? In “Shoot-Out” (https://kotokreport.com/shoot-out/) I discussed how Ukraine is caught between two powers playing realpolitik –…
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The Perkins Coie Executive Order Considered
In today’s guest commentary Peter A. Gold addresses issues raised by the Trump Administration’s executive order targeting the Seattle law firm Perkins Coie, which represented Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016. Peter raises questions for every American to think about. Peter A. Gold, Esquire, is a member of the Bar of the Supreme Court of the…
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Coupes & Coops: A Tariff Story about Autos and Eggs
So what does the fate of a once-booming chicken-and-egg industry in my birth state of New Jersey have in common with the evolution of the US auto industry? A 25% tariff, that’s what. We begin today’s missive with a link to a January 29, 2025, CATO blog post that describes, with seven fascinating charts, what…
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Trump Tariff Inflation
Kotok’s view — Trump tariff-induced inflation is coming. It is the most likely case when you combine economic destruction and disruption, with higher costs because of an uncertainty premium, with a sales tax (tariffs) war among trading partners. IMO, only a serious slowdown or a recession (with rising unemployment above 5%) can keep the inflation…
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Is It a Trump Bump or Trump Slump?
Try this. Take your portfolio and price the holdings on election day of last year (or a few days later, after the outcome of the Congress was known). Price it again on Inauguration Day (or use the opening day of the new Congress). Price it again today. Then, you decide. Is it a pullback of…