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Shoot-Out!
Hundreds of millions of people witnessed the recent shoot-out in the Oval Office. Among them, in the room, was a reporter from Russian media. Note that Reuters and the Associated Press were not invited by the White House to join the press corps assembled there. In my opinion, the two news services not invited are among…
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Bird Flu, the Rat & the Flea
As H5N1 bird flu spreads across mammals and has now reached rats, we are reminded of Chapter 7 in our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks. That chapter focuses on the Plague of Justinian in the Eastern Roman Empire, where plague (caused by the Yersinia pestis bacterium) spread with the range of…
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Gold? Sovereign Wealth Fund
I believe a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is coming from Trump 2.0. It may have to trigger a huge change at the Fed, which might revalue the gold certificate to a $1 trillion asset on the Fed’s balance sheet. And then the liability side of the Fed’s balance sheet would be a transfer of $1 trillion…
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Tariff War Continues
The Tariff War is getting hotter. Here are some bullets and a reading list. 1. First, some history — in our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks (https://www.thefedandtheflu.com/), my co-authors and I discuss the plague in Athens and the aftermath of the Peloponnesian War. See Chapter 4. Note that one of the…
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Our New Book Is Official
We are live with our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks (https://www.thefedandtheflu.com).My co-authors and I have nearly five years invested in the effort. We appreciate the positive reviews the book has received so far. Here are two recent ones from independent reviewers: Kirkus calls The Fed and the Flu “A well-researched, engaging economic history of pandemics”…
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Debt, Deficits, Cassandra!
Debt and deficits. Everywhere I look, read, listen, observe, or encounter in person or by text or by email, there are wannabe Cassandras predicting a calamity over debt and the deficit. These are all just opinions. Remember: Cassandra could predict the future, yet no one believed her. Modern-day, wannabe debt-and-deficit Cassandras predicting the future are often believed,…
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The Price of Eggs & Bird Flu
We thank readers for their feedback on the January 26 Sunday Kotok Report, “Trump 2.0 and Healthcare?” (https://kotokreport.com/trump-2-0-healthcare/). And, yes, the book — The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks — is finished and will be released on February 12. Details regarding preorders are updated at https://www.thefedandtheflu.com. Two recent reviews are out, at Kirkus Reviews and Readers’ Favorite. Flu…
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Tariffs: Oh, Canada!
“The only certainty in (fiscal, trade and monetary) policy, politics, in our capital markets, in our social lives and, even in sports, is the lack of certainty these days.” — Doug Kass We published on tariffs on Monday. See https://kotokreport.com/tariffs/. So far here’s a succinct summary of the result and an excellent explainer from PBS NewsHour: “Trump’s 2.0…
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Tariffs
Trump 2.0 tariffs and our trading partners’ retaliations are taking shape. What can we expect? Today I offer my own macro perspective and some thoughts from others. Here’s Canada’s reaction to the Trump tariffs: “Watch PM Justin Trudeau’s full announcement on Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs,”https://www.cp24.com/video/2025/02/02/full-watch-pm-justin-trudeaus-full-announcement-on-canadas-response-to-us-tariffs/ An excerpt from Trudeau’s speech: Canada has critical minerals,…
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National Defense & Transition!
I wrote about America’s national defense on the Sunday before Trump 2.0 Inauguration Day (https://kotokreport.com/national-defense/). Many thanks to readers for their varied viewpoints and responses. Here are some additional observations. First, a disclosure: I hold a defense-sector ETF exposure in my personal investment account. I’m not recommending anything, just disclosing. What you read here is…