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Real CDC or Snake-Oil CDC?
We are in a new information landscape, one that has immense benefits but also serious consequences. To adapt to the dense jungle of our information ecosystem, we must become responsible information consumers in ways we’ve never had to before. It’s hard but desperately needed for our health and our democracy.(Your Local Epidemiologist) In January 2025,…
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Ukraine and Florida
This morning, we consider the blur of developments surrounding peace negotiations in Ukraine, their impacts on the Ukrainian-American community in Florida and Ukrainian refugees across the US, and possible outcomes. What will Putin agree to, and can he be trusted? In “Shoot-Out” (https://kotokreport.com/shoot-out/) I discussed how Ukraine is caught between two powers playing realpolitik –…
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The Perkins Coie Executive Order Considered
In today’s guest commentary Peter A. Gold addresses issues raised by the Trump Administration’s executive order targeting the Seattle law firm Perkins Coie, which represented Hillary Clinton’s campaign in 2016. Peter raises questions for every American to think about. Peter A. Gold, Esquire, is a member of the Bar of the Supreme Court of the…
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Coupes & Coops: A Tariff Story about Autos and Eggs
So what does the fate of a once-booming chicken-and-egg industry in my birth state of New Jersey have in common with the evolution of the US auto industry? A 25% tariff, that’s what. We begin today’s missive with a link to a January 29, 2025, CATO blog post that describes, with seven fascinating charts, what…
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Trump Tariff Inflation
Kotok’s view — Trump tariff-induced inflation is coming. It is the most likely case when you combine economic destruction and disruption, with higher costs because of an uncertainty premium, with a sales tax (tariffs) war among trading partners. IMO, only a serious slowdown or a recession (with rising unemployment above 5%) can keep the inflation…
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Is It a Trump Bump or Trump Slump?
Try this. Take your portfolio and price the holdings on election day of last year (or a few days later, after the outcome of the Congress was known). Price it again on Inauguration Day (or use the opening day of the new Congress). Price it again today. Then, you decide. Is it a pullback of…
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Shoot-Out!
Hundreds of millions of people witnessed the recent shoot-out in the Oval Office. Among them, in the room, was a reporter from Russian media. Note that Reuters and the Associated Press were not invited by the White House to join the press corps assembled there. In my opinion, the two news services not invited are among…
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Bird Flu, the Rat & the Flea
As H5N1 bird flu spreads across mammals and has now reached rats, we are reminded of Chapter 7 in our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks. That chapter focuses on the Plague of Justinian in the Eastern Roman Empire, where plague (caused by the Yersinia pestis bacterium) spread with the range of…
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Gold? Sovereign Wealth Fund
I believe a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is coming from Trump 2.0. It may have to trigger a huge change at the Fed, which might revalue the gold certificate to a $1 trillion asset on the Fed’s balance sheet. And then the liability side of the Fed’s balance sheet would be a transfer of $1 trillion…
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Tariff War Continues
The Tariff War is getting hotter. Here are some bullets and a reading list. 1. First, some history — in our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks (https://www.thefedandtheflu.com/), my co-authors and I discuss the plague in Athens and the aftermath of the Peloponnesian War. See Chapter 4. Note that one of the…