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Bird Flu, the Rat & the Flea
As H5N1 bird flu spreads across mammals and has now reached rats, we are reminded of Chapter 7 in our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks. That chapter focuses on the Plague of Justinian in the Eastern Roman Empire, where plague (caused by the Yersinia pestis bacterium) spread with the range of…
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Gold? Sovereign Wealth Fund
I believe a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) is coming from Trump 2.0. It may have to trigger a huge change at the Fed, which might revalue the gold certificate to a $1 trillion asset on the Fed’s balance sheet. And then the liability side of the Fed’s balance sheet would be a transfer of $1 trillion…
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Tariff War Continues
The Tariff War is getting hotter. Here are some bullets and a reading list. 1. First, some history — in our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks (https://www.thefedandtheflu.com/), my co-authors and I discuss the plague in Athens and the aftermath of the Peloponnesian War. See Chapter 4. Note that one of the…
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Our New Book Is Official
We are live with our new book, The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks (https://www.thefedandtheflu.com).My co-authors and I have nearly five years invested in the effort. We appreciate the positive reviews the book has received so far. Here are two recent ones from independent reviewers: Kirkus calls The Fed and the Flu “A well-researched, engaging economic history of pandemics”…
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Debt, Deficits, Cassandra!
Debt and deficits. Everywhere I look, read, listen, observe, or encounter in person or by text or by email, there are wannabe Cassandras predicting a calamity over debt and the deficit. These are all just opinions. Remember: Cassandra could predict the future, yet no one believed her. Modern-day, wannabe debt-and-deficit Cassandras predicting the future are often believed,…
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The Price of Eggs & Bird Flu
We thank readers for their feedback on the January 26 Sunday Kotok Report, “Trump 2.0 and Healthcare?” (https://kotokreport.com/trump-2-0-healthcare/). And, yes, the book — The Fed and the Flu: Parsing Pandemic Economic Shocks — is finished and will be released on February 12. Details regarding preorders are updated at https://www.thefedandtheflu.com. Two recent reviews are out, at Kirkus Reviews and Readers’ Favorite. Flu…
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Tariffs: Oh, Canada!
“The only certainty in (fiscal, trade and monetary) policy, politics, in our capital markets, in our social lives and, even in sports, is the lack of certainty these days.” — Doug Kass We published on tariffs on Monday. See https://kotokreport.com/tariffs/. So far here’s a succinct summary of the result and an excellent explainer from PBS NewsHour: “Trump’s 2.0…
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Tariffs
Trump 2.0 tariffs and our trading partners’ retaliations are taking shape. What can we expect? Today I offer my own macro perspective and some thoughts from others. Here’s Canada’s reaction to the Trump tariffs: “Watch PM Justin Trudeau’s full announcement on Canada’s response to U.S. tariffs,”https://www.cp24.com/video/2025/02/02/full-watch-pm-justin-trudeaus-full-announcement-on-canadas-response-to-us-tariffs/ An excerpt from Trudeau’s speech: Canada has critical minerals,…
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National Defense & Transition!
I wrote about America’s national defense on the Sunday before Trump 2.0 Inauguration Day (https://kotokreport.com/national-defense/). Many thanks to readers for their varied viewpoints and responses. Here are some additional observations. First, a disclosure: I hold a defense-sector ETF exposure in my personal investment account. I’m not recommending anything, just disclosing. What you read here is…
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Trump 2.0 & Healthcare?
In the US stock market, the healthcare sector is represented by the sector spider XLV. Here’s a recent pre-inauguration picture of the sector spider’s performance. As of pre-inauguration, on January 17, 2025, the ten largest holdings in this sector spider ETF were: Eli Lilly and Co. 11.58% UnitedHealth Group Inc. 9.12% Johnson & Johnson: 6.90%…