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Inflation and the Fed
(Please note: The Kotok Report is now also available on Substack at https://dkotok.substack.com.) Dear Reader, Do you really think that inflation is tame enough for the Fed to start cutting rates? Take two minutes to look at the data. Here’s the Atlanta Fed’s compilation of various inflation estimators: “Inflation Project: Underlying Inflation Dashboard,” https://www.atlantafed.org/research/inflationproject/underlying-inflation-dashboard.aspx I have excerpted…
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Trump Tariff Inflation
Kotok’s view — Trump tariff-induced inflation is coming. It is the most likely case when you combine economic destruction and disruption, with higher costs because of an uncertainty premium, with a sales tax (tariffs) war among trading partners. IMO, only a serious slowdown or a recession (with rising unemployment above 5%) can keep the inflation…