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Is It a Trump Bump or Trump Slump?
Try this. Take your portfolio and price the holdings on election day of last year (or a few days later, after the outcome of the Congress was known). Price it again on Inauguration Day (or use the opening day of the new Congress). Price it again today. Then, you decide. Is it a pullback of…
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Jacob Frenkel, Kathleen Hays, Fed’s Jackson Hole Meeting
David R. Kotok, September 4, 2024, Cumberland Advisors Co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer (The following was first published on Cumberland Advisors’ website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://www.cumber.com/.) There have been many, many, many reports and podcasts and descriptions and interpretations from the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting. I want to mention just one interview.…
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CCC? Not for Me!
David R. Kotok, July 28, 2024 (The following was first published on Cumberland Advisors and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://www.cumber.com/.) This quote was a lead item in Michael Gayed’s Lead-Lag report on July 24th: The worst of the worst credit tier, CCC-rated and below, has seen its yield spread rise by 116 basis points…
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France, by David R. Kotok, June 21, 2024
(The following was first published on Cumberland Advisors’ website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://www.cumber.com/.) “How can you govern a country with two hundred thirty-eight varieties of cheese?” “• François Mitterrand, President of France, 1981–1995 Henry Kissinger to Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai in 1972: “What do you think of the French revolution?” Zhou: “Too…
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Trump Verdict & Markets, by David R. Kotok, June 3, 2024
(The following was first published on Cumberland Advisors’ website and via LISTSERV. For details, visit https://www.cumber.com/.) I received an email from a retired NY judge, who noted the 574-point rally in the Dow Jones Industrials as a positive response to Trump’s guilty verdict. I disagreed. I believe markets rallied post-verdict for other reasons. Markets are still…