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Tariffs, Trade, and the Coming Recession
At the Global Interdependence Center’s 2025 Monetary and Trade Conference last week, Jeremy Schwartz, Global Chief Investment Officer at WisdomTree, and I shared an in-depth discussion on his Behind the Markets podcast. The entire podcast is a valuable listen; our discussion starts at 30:19. I invite readers to listen. Here’s the program description: Host Jeremy Schwartz and…
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Putin — Putler? Readers Respond
Headlines hit with the frequency of missiles. Russia’s war against Ukraine grinds on despite the Trump administration’s efforts at obtaining a peace favorable to Russia’s interests. Russia pounded Kyiv with missiles and drones overnight, killing at least eight people, wounding more than 70 and smashing buildings in the biggest attack on the Ukrainian capital this…
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Tough Times Ahead for County, City Budgets
Tough Times Ahead for County, City Budgets I spoke recently with Johannes Werner of WSLR+Fogartyville 96.5, a listener-supported nonprofit radio station serving Florida’s west coast, where I live. In the interview, we discussed tariff impacts and, as stocks have fallen, how things are different this time in the world of bonds, which are usually regarded…
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George Robertson on the “Trump Show”
George Robertson has produced a compelling, data-driven, chart-rich analysis assessing the likely trajectory of Trump’s agenda. Here’s his conclusion: “Trump must reboot and take up Congress as a full partner in all his agenda. I do not think that will be done so Trump [is] likely to end up in protracted glowering and bombast and…
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Trump’s Math Gaffes
In our Sunday, April 13, post, entitled “Yippy,” we offered the following paragraph: We will write separately about the technical miscalculations used in the original trade release from the Trump administration. They are an absolute embarrassment for Navarro and company and their so-called experts. When their miscalculations were revealed in detail, the powers that be…
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“Yippy”
“I thought that people were jumping a little bit out of line. They were getting yippy. You know, they were getting a little bit yippy, a little bit afraid.” — Donald Trump, April 9, 2025. Songwriter Stan Jones (1914–1963) wrote the song “Ghost Riders in the Sky,” which is based on a cowboy legend he heard as a…
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Tariffs — Damn the Torpedoes
Tariffs: Damn the Torpedoes! My friend and fishing buddy Jack Farley was kind enough to inquire about my views regarding the current tariff chapter being written into American history. To adapt the famous phrase, damn the torpedoes, here are the results. I decided not to hold anything back. In an April 4 interview, we covered…
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Trump Tariff Outcomes?
Does the Trump bear market bring the S&P 500 Index down to 4000? Does it result in a drop of S&P earnings (2025–2026) from the pre-Trump Tariff War estimate of $260–$270 down to the $200–$220 range? Worst case: Yes! With a serious recession and more upheaval. Best case: Rapid trade deals are made, and the…
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D.T. 2.0 Tariffs
DT 2.0 used a formula to calculate tariffs based primarily on the trade deficit between the US and each country as a trading partner. The formula converts the trade deficit into a percentage. That is how it gets to tariff rates with a floor of 10% and no ceiling. Essentially, the larger the trade deficit,…
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Trump’s Tariff War
I will use just one of many incoming messages to summarize the nearly universal view about the Trump tariff announcement. Doc A. wrote: I haven’t made a prediction in 5 years, but I just read 3 emails from “news” agencies that made mumbled speculations about today. It seems clear to me. Here’s what I see…